The 2026 AFL finals are set to be a thrilling affair, with 10 teams still in contention for the premiership. The final round of the regular season will determine the top 10, with the first 10-team finals bracket predicted. Here's a breakdown of the final round scenarios and predictions:
Key Talking Points
- Dylan Moore's absence: Fremantle and Sydney are locked into the top two spots, but Brisbane is now the favourite for third, with a 7-goal percentage lead over Hawthorn. A Dockers-Lions Grand Final is more likely.
- Melbourne's chances: Melbourne can still sneak into the top four if either the Lions or Hawks lose, but that's very unlikely. Brisbane's opponent, Collingwood, is all-but-mathematically locked into the 8th vs 9th wildcard final, and Hawthorn's opponent, West Coast, is long eliminated.
- Adelaide's position: Adelaide is favoured for 7th, with a 15-goal percentage deficit to Geelong. The Crows could still catch any of the Lions, Hawks, Demons (vs Dogs) or Cats (vs Tigers) if those sides lose.
- Collingwood's wildcard: Collingwood is virtually guaranteed a spot in the 8th vs 9th wildcard final, and there's no reason for them to care about their position, as their opponent will be Victorian and the game will be at the MCG.
- Western Bulldogs vs Carlton draw: The draw between the Western Bulldogs and Carlton gave the former pole position in the battle to avoid the tougher wildcard game. If the Dogs win, or the Blues lose, the Dogs will face the Magpies in the 8-9 wildcard final.
Round 24 Schedule
- St Kilda vs Gold Coast Suns: 7:30pm at Marvel Stadium
- Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions: 7:40pm at the MCG
- Carlton vs Fremantle: 1:15pm at Marvel Stadium
- Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs: 4:15pm at the MCG
- Geelong vs Richmond: 7:45pm at GMHBA Stadium
- Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants: 8:10pm at Adelaide Oval
- Essendon vs Port Adelaide: 12:20pm at Marvel Stadium
- Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne: 3:20pm at the SCG
- West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn: 7:20pm at Optus Stadium
Team-by-Team Finals Scenarios
- Fremantle: To play Carlton, finish 1st if win or lose.
- Sydney Swans: To play North Melbourne, finish 2nd if win or lose.
- Brisbane Lions: To play Collingwood, finish 3rd if win, otherwise 4th.
- Hawthorn: To play West Coast, finish 3rd if win, otherwise 4th.
- Melbourne: To play Western Bulldogs, finish 3rd if win, otherwise 5th.
- Geelong: To play Richmond, finish 3rd if win, otherwise 6th.
- Adelaide Crows: To play GWS Giants, finish 3rd if win, otherwise 7th.
- Collingwood: To play Brisbane Lions, finish 8th if win, otherwise 9th.
- Western Bulldogs: To play Melbourne, finish 8th if win, otherwise 9th.
- Carlton: To play Fremantle, finish 8th if win, otherwise 9th.
Predicted Final Ladder
- Fremantle (19-4)
- Sydney Swans (18-5)
- Brisbane Lions (16-7)
- Hawthorn (15-6-2)
- Melbourne (16-7)
- Geelong (15-8)
- Adelaide Crows (15-8)
- Collingwood (12-9-2)
- Carlton (12-10-1)
- Western Bulldogs (12-10-1)
- St Kilda (11-12)
- GWS Giants (10-13)
- North Melbourne (9-14)
- Gold Coast Suns (8-15)
- Port Adelaide (7-16)
- West Coast Eagles (4-19)
- Richmond (3-20)
- Essendon (2-21)
In summary, the 2026 AFL finals are shaping up to be an exciting and unpredictable affair, with several teams still in the running for the premiership. The final round of the regular season will be crucial in determining the top 10, with several teams battling for position and a chance at the ultimate prize.
